Mortgage Bankers Weekly Survey: Mortgage Applications Decrease

7/06/11
Fixed rate mortgages are changed little this week, at 4.5%.

The MBAA reports their Market Composite Index: (Loan application volume)  decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Their Refinance Index: decreased 9.2 percent from the previous week and for the last three weeks. However,Mortgage applications also decreased 5.9% from one week earlier The MBAA reports their Purchase Indexincreased 4.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 11.7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

Key to better numbers is growth, especially job growth. The MBAA forecasts a slower, but positive growth situation. 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth was 3.1%. After a dip to 1.8% this quarter, they see growth through 2012 largely around 2.8%. Not likely a strong scenario for enough job growth to help the housing markets push forward.
Confirming the trend is the MBAA mortgage orgination forecast: Mortgage originations (in billions of dollars) are expected to come in at $1025 for 2011 and $961 for 2012.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rises to 4.60 Percent

30-year fixed-rate mortgage:averaged 4.60 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 7, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.51 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.57 percent. 

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage:averaged 3.75 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.07 percent. 

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: averaged 3.30 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.22 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.75 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: averaged 3.01 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.97 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.75 percent.   .

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates followed Treasury yields higher over the holiday week but remain quite affordable by historical standards. For instance, interest rates on all mortgages outstanding in the first quarter of this year averaged just under 6 percent. With today's rates, these homeowners who have the ability to refinance could shave $169 per month in interest payments on a $200,000, 30-year fixed mortgage

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Consecutive Week

30-year fixed-rate mortgage:averaged 4.87 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 3, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.95 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: averaged 4.15 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.33 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point , down from last week when it averaged 3.8 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.11 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.4 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.27 percent.

Freddie Sayz 

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates saw an overall improvement this week. Interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages were almost 0.2 percentage points below this years high set just three weeks ago. This means that homebuyers could now expect to pay $263 less per year on a $200,000 loan

However, housing demand still remains weak. New home sales in January were near record lows dating back to 1963 when the data began, according to the Census Bureau . Similarly, pending sales of existing homes fell for the second consecutive month in January, according to the National Association of Realtor

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Survey: Mortgage Applications Decrease

6/29/11
Fixed rate mortgages are changed little this week, at 4.5%.

The MBAA reports their Market Composite Index: (Loan application volume) decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Their Refinance Index: also decreased 2.6 percent from the previous week. However, Mortgage applications also decreased 5.9% from one week earlier The MBAA reports their Purchase Index  decreased 3 percent from thew week earlier
Key to better numbers is growth, especially job growth. The MBAA forecasts a slower, but positive growth situation. 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth was 3.1%. After a dip to 1.8% this quarter, they see growth through 2012 largely around 2.8%. Not likely a strong scenario for enough job growth to help the housing markets push forward.
Confirming the trend is the MBAA mortgage orgination forecast: Mortgage originations (in billions of dollars) are expected to come in at $1025 for 2011 and $961 for 2012.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/22/2010

Fixed rate mortgages are changed little this week, at 4.5%.The MBAA reports their Market Composite Index: (Loan application volume) decreased 5.9 percent over last week

Their Refinance Index: also decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week .However, Mortgage applications also decreased 5.9% from one week earlier The MBAA reports their Purchase Index  decreased 3.9 percent

Key to better numbers is growth, especially job growth. The MBAA forecasts a slower, but positive growth situation. 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth was 3.1%. After a dip to 1.8% this quarter, they see growth through 2012 largely around 2.8%. Not likely a strong scenario for enough job growth to help the housing markets push forward.

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Better Market Street Project: What San Francisco Has In Store For Us

Wiki History

Jasper O'Farrell established Market Street as the widest street in town, he envisioned a grand boulevard, an arrow straight to the heart of Twin Peaks. The Better Market Steet Project is designed to recapture his vision all these years later.

Market street has been a blight for a long long time. When the freeway came down it opened up the Emarcaderos for development. We have a new Farmers Market and Boulevard, Rincon Center and a host of restaurants and condo development.

Twitter is moving to 1355 Market and that will no doubt help grow out mid Market. Upper Market is seeing new growth and Hayes Valley has helped link the Civic Center cultural centers of the Ballet and Symphony to the new location for the Conservatory of Music just off Vann Ness and Market.

San Francisco is looking transform Market Street from the Embarcaderos to Octavia Street with long term infrastructure improvements to develop a safe sustainable boulevard, a place to stroll, bike and shop. Plans are for a ground-floor redesign of buildings all along Market to create a singular look and feel. A grand boulevard, offering a Market street that will be the signature corridor in San Francisco. Close to the cultural centers of the Civic Center, peppered with new housing and local internet industry leaders... Very Cool.

New Opportunity?
The real question is whether the Better Market Street Project, especially as it focus's on Mid Market and the new Twitter location at 1355 Market will benefit the Tenderloin or the Mission.

Will the Twitter folks (Yelp and Zynga cant be far behind) move to the Tenderloin or the Mission? My bets on the Mission side, its become a hotspot hang out for much of the San Francisco tech industry and new restaurants are popping up all around Mission from 14th up to 24th. I think the lower Mission is a growth opportunity

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Urban Renters: Who Are They

Gen Y

They passed boomers to become America’s largest generation, Gen-Yers, now 15 to 32 years

old will dominate and define residential demand for real estate as did the Boomers before them.The Urban Land Institute commissioned an online survey to discover their preferences

 because this next waves needs is mandatory knowledge for owners and buyers of real property.  About 4.3 million Gen Yers turned 22 in 2010 and will exceed 4.5 million in 2012 and 2013. For at least ten well over 4 million Americans will turn 22 each year, producing solid apartment demand. Whether they will hold a bias towards rentingover ownership remains to be seen. The survey indicates ownership is still desirable for Gen Y. 

Renters Demographics

Why Rent

Flexibility

Renting can provide more flexibility e and lower costs than owning. So certain households are more likely to rent than own, including young singles starting out, families relocating to a new metropolitan area, recent immigrants to the United States, and low-income households

Transition

such as a change in job or marital status, short term commitments that allow people to move on in times of uncertainty.

Relocating

Rental housing can be a good option if you expect to move again within a few years. Buying and expecting to sell, may find you a reluctant landlord. 

Immigrants

Consider the strength of immigration. The arrival of young foreign-born households has added to the renter pool and although its slowing now due to low job growth, It will continue to add demand and help keep the rent rates trending up. 

Retirees Moving Back

 As the baby boom population ages and their children leave home, some will opt for moving out of their homes and into apartments. Not wanting the cost and obligations of home ownership they are choosing the mobility that comes with renting. Expect a lot of retirees coming back into citys for easy access to theater, communtiies of like interests and some excitement not readily available in the suburbs.

Rental Property Is Profitable

From the Freddie Mac site: The multifamily segment of the GSEs has much lower default rates than the singlefamily sector. Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily delinquency rates both remain less than 1 percent. While they have risen in the recession, Freddie Mac’s average delinquency rate (60 days or more past due) is 0.44 percent as of the end of October. And Fannie Mae’s is 0.65 percent as of Sept 30. 

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Survey: Mortgage Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/15/2010

Fixed rate mortgages are changed little this week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inching up to 4.5% from last week’s 4.49% average rate.
The MBAA reports their  Market Composite Index:
  ( Loan application volume) Increased 13% over last weeks number. 

Their Refinance Index: increased 16.5 percent from the previous week and made of the bulk of mortgage activity this week.However,  Mortgage applications decreased 4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations Weekly Mortgage The MBAA reports their  Purchase Index  increased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, a slight uptick in purchase volume.

Key to better numbers is growth, especially job growth. The MBAA forecasts a slower, but positive growth situation. 4th quarter 2010 GDP growth was 3.1%. After a dip to 1.8% this quarter,  they see growth through 2012 largely around 2.8%. Not likely a strong scenario for enough job growth to help the housing markets push forward. 


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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Mixed; 30-Year Fixed Ticks Up to 4.50 Percent

30-year fixed-rate mortgage:averaged 4.50 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 16, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.49 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.75 percent.  

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: t his week averaged 3.67 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.68 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.20 percent.     

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: averaged 3.27 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.28 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.89 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: averaged 2.97 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.95 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.82 percent.  

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates were little changed this week as financial market participants shrugged off the recent inflation reports. The  core producer price index  rose just 0.2 percent in May while the  core consumer price index  increased 0.3 percent, both near the market consensus forecast.
Much of the run down in home mortgage debt so far has been through second mortgages, according to the  Federal Reserve Board. Household mortgage balances fell by more than $930 billion between the peak set at the end of March 2008 and March of this year, of which, second mortgages accounted for $820 billion of the decline
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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Fixed Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Slide

30-year fixed-rate mortgage:averaged 4.55 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending June 2, 2011, down  from last week when it averaged 4.60 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.79 percent.  

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: this week averaged 3.74 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.78 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.20 percent.  

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: averaged 3.41 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, the same from last week when it averaged 3.41 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.94 percent .

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: averaged 3.13 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.11 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.95 percent.  

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Fixed mortgage rates followed U.S. Treasury yields lower this week amid financial market concerns that the current lull in the economy is continuing. First quarter growth in consumer spending was revised downward by half of a percentage point to 2.2 percent, according to theBureau of Economic Activity,  consumer confidence  in May was weaker than the market consensus forecast, and the  manufacturing industry slowed for the third straight month in May

The housing market is showing strain as well. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index  fell 5.1 percent between the first quarters of 2010 and 2011, representing the largest annual decline since the third quarter of 2009. In addition, the  index of pending existing home sales dropped 11.6 percent from March to April, led by the Midwest and South regions where the tornados and flooding occurred


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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Survey: Mortgage Applications Decrease

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/1/2010

Fixed rate mortgages continue to decline this week, with the 30-year loan averaging 4.55% its lowest average this year. The MBAA reports their  Market Composite Index: ( Loan application volume) Decreased 4%. 

Their Refinance Index:  Decreased 5.7% from the previous week on further declines in the interest rate.
However, this isnt helping sell homes.  Mortgage applications decreased 4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations Weekly Mortgage The MBAA reports their  Purchase Index  decreased 1.2% compared with the previous week
The recent Fed meeting indicates that lower rates will continue as the economic  recovery is unremarkable. Thats Bernakes word for this...unremarkable


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San Francisco Home Prices

Case Shiller and us

U.S. home prices dropped to a newlow in March. Case-Shiller home price index reports the lowest prices in five

years, confirming those fears of a double dip. National home prices declined 34% from the 2006 peak, down 5% in just the last year

Excesses of the Bubble Years

We are still working crippling debt, over priced homes and excess supply. Too many families owe too much money. Banks hold too much debt collateralized by too real estate and no doubt too little interest in adding to their property protfolio. All leading to too much market supply as banks dump homes at fire sale prices.

How did San Francisco Do

David Blitzer, Chair of the S&P index committe notes that numbers are down again, another 5%, but the pattern is not uniform. A few cities, Washington DC and San Francisco and San Diego, are above their recent lows.

Methodology

The Case Shiller San Francisco designation includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo and San Francisco. So, for those of us interested in the San Francisco markets you should be aware that this is hardly clean data. Never the Less, we have fared better than many other cities. We have outperformed, along with San Diego and DC and are #3 of 20 in the month over month home price category.

Relative Strength

In bad markets, perspective is how well you did relative to your peers. Losing less in a bad market is an indicator of a strong(er) market. S&P also ranks cities by two other categories and here San Francisco also stands out as a more solid investment. San Francisco ranks 9 of 20 in both year over year and the since 2000 price category. Given that we are arguably the highest priced market in the country coming in just under the halfway mark is somewhat encouraging. In fact San Francisco, it seems to bucks the truism that the higher you go the harder you fall.

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Survey: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/18/2010

Fixed rate mortgages continue to decline this week, with the 30-year loan averaging 4.61% its lowest average this year. The MBAA reports their  Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 7.8 percent. 

Their Refinance Index:  increased 13.2 percent from the previous week and is at its highest level since the week ending December 10, 2010. Rates continue to decline and people are taking advantage of low rates.
However, this isnt helping sell homes.  Mortgage applications increased 7.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations Weekly Mortgage The MBAA reports their  Purchase Index:  increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 36.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. However Refinance Index did increase by 3% to 66.7%
Although low rates are not translating into many home sales, I do think these refis are helping people fix their personal balance sheets and hopefully, this is keeping some people out of the foreclosure cycle

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/04/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier

Refinance Index: increased 6.0 percent from the previous week

Purchase Index: increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 36.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 62.7 percent of total applications from 61.6 percent the previous week.

MBA outlook:

The MBAA expects rate to rise this year, largely due to the Fed announcement that they will begin to back away from their mortgage buyback program, allowing the markets to begin to price the cost of loans. This is a hit to affordability and will likely impact sales a bit.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Matches Yearly Low of 4.71%

30-year fixed-rate mortgage:
averaged 4.78 percent with an averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 5, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.78 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.00 percent. .

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: this week averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.36 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: averaged 3.47 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.51 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.97 percent .

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: averaged 3.14 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.15 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.07 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Weaker economic data reports reduced Treasury bond yields and allowed mortgage rates to drift lower for the third consecutive week. For instance, real economic growth in the first quarter fell short of the market consensus forecast and represented the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2010. In addition, both the manufacturing and service sectors exhibited growth at a slower rate in April.

Data reports on the housing market, on the other hand, were a little more uplifting. The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales rose in March for the second month in a row to the highest index reading since November 2010. Also, the Federal Reserve reported credit standards among commercial banks for prime mortgages were unchanged on net in the second quarter of the year, following two quarters of tightening

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Case Shiller: Thoughts From Around The Web

Optimists

AP

A wave of foreclosures is forcing down home prices in most major U.S. cities. But economists and real estate agents are noticing what they call a key first step for any housing recovery: a drop in the glut of homes for sale in markets hit hardest by foreclosures.

If we were to see several consecutive months of supply getting smaller, it would point to an improving housing market," said Celia Chen, senior director at Moody's Analytics. "Even if it is investors buying them, they are renting them out in hopes that prices in the next several years will rise.

NAR

According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index, the gap between the indices of Prospective Home Buyer Traffic and Prospective Home Seller Traffic has narrowed, with an increase in Prospective Buyer Traffic. A continuation of the narrowing of the gap between buyer and seller interest would be favorable to the strengthening of real estate markets nationwide.

In many cases, and in recent years, market prices have already declined substantially. The size of the shadow inventory, mortgages, 30 days overdue or in forecolsure, suggests that problems may not be resolved for two or three years. However, the shadow inventory is declining in size and we may be near the end of continued price declines in many markets.

Pessimists

Standard and Poors

“There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing. says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in  January fell further in February.

Wall Street Journal

The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. “From a longer-term perspective, it is important to keep in mind that in the seven years leading up to the peak in July 2006, the nonseasonally adjusted national 20 city home price index jumped by 155% (126 index points)… So far, this index has dropped by 32% (66 index points) in the 55 months since the peak.

I could fill the page with pessimists, hardly a positive thought out there today. I think the most positive take away is that at least  this is an orderly retreat, rather than the kind of screeching declines we have seen. 

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