Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Decrease

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/26/2010

Market Composite Index:(loan application volume)     A  measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.0 percent compared with the previous week. The results do not include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Refinance Index: decreased 15.3 percent from the previous week and reached its lowest level since January 2010.

Purchase Index:  decreased 8.7 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index is at its lowest level since October 2010.  The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 20.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 70.3 percent of total applications from 73.0 percent the previous week
Arm Share:  increased to 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) 

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.80 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 27, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.74 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.09 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.39 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: A veraged 3.70 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.25 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: A veraged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.29 percent. 
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates followed bond yields a little higher this week amid positive data reports from  The Conference Board that suggest the economy is strengthening. The index of leading indicators rose 1.0 percent in December, nearly twice that of the market consensus forecast and represented the sixth consecutive monthly increase, according to the Board. They also reported a stronger gain in consumer confidence for January, rising to an eight-month high. In addition, the share of households who said jobs were plentiful rose to the highest level since May 2009.

Consumer demand in the housing market is also showing some positive gains. Sales of  existing homes  rose in December to the strongest pace since May and sales of  new homes jumped to the highest since April. At their current sales rate, the expected time on the market fell from 9.5 to 8.l months for existing houses and fell from 8.4 to 6.9 months for new home

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Remodel: Is It An Investment

People remodel because of immediate needs for the owner. Either its time for more space or just a desire to upgrade and modernize. Curb appeal and adding value is an important consideration, But resale value is hard to pin down.

Home evaluation is hostage to market forces and individual taste. Thats why Replacement projects always perform better in resale value than other types of remodeling projects. They are less expensive projects that contribute to curb appeal, a strong subjective factor among home buyers.

If you are remodeling because you need to reconfigure for your needs, always keep in mind the resale value of your remodel choice, but dont expect to get it all back. Balance your needs and consider the recapture amount of the project and then build out.

Whatever you do don't overspend and don't be too unique. Most projects wont return your costs and certainly outside the norm remodels can take forever to sell. So where should you put your money...

Biggest Bang For The Buck

Remodel magazine does an annual survey and they point out that declining home prices and lower construction costs were overmatched by a 15.8% drop in estimated resale values. The ongoing uncertainty and loss of equity has hurt the recapture rate of remodels and upgrades. In other words, buyers arent willing to pay for remodels.

Getting Your Money Back
Top five remodels   (chart).

1. Garage door replacement returned 84%
2. Entry doors returned 102%
3. fiber-cement siding replacement returned 80% of cost.
4/5. Wood deck additions (66 - 73%) tied with minor kitchen remodel returning (60 - 68%)

Getting the point? Dont go overboard. Most projects will return between 55 to 70% of your cost. If thats ok because you need space or will have lots of enjoyment then go ahead. But if you think you will recoup, likley not. 

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/19/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)   increased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.4 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: increased 7.7 percent from the previous week. This is the third consecutive weekly increase in refinance applications and is the highest Refinance Index observed since the beginning of December
Purchase Index:  decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 73.0 percent of total applications from 72.1 percent the previous week.  This is the highest refinance share observed since the week ending December 10, 2010
Arm Share: increased to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Fed’s proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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First The Clay And Now The Roxie

The Roxie is the oldest continuously operating movie in San Francisco. The Roxie,  a 300-seat theater in the Mission hosts Bay Area and international film festivals,  indie movies and documentaries. Now the Roxie theater in the Mission is having problems, as is the Clay theater on Fillmore.

In 2005, Roxie was bought by New College of California,in the Mission and  became part of New College's Media Studies Program.  Now the New College is closed and the Roxie is on the brink.

Outside of  the megaplex movie mold, the Roxie is an alternative theater. They show offbeat indie movies, supports local film artists and have added a new film and media school for film makers.

The Roxie supports local artists and have always pushed the boundarys, offering more documentaries than any other theater in the country.  If you havent spent an evening in the Mission lately, this is a great part of town and the restaurants and bars are among the best in the city.  
Photo source: 24th Street Local.org
Thanks For Reading
www.yourpropertypath.com

Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)      increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week
Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier
Purchase Index:  increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent.  The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week
Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.
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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update:Mortgage Applications Increase the Week After Christmas

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  01/5/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume)  decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis
.
Refinance Index: decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent
Purchase Index: decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

Arm Share: No info available this week

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.
We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997.  This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Rates Mostly Up in Freddie Mac Weekly Survey

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.86 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending December 30, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.20 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.54 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent
Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Interest rates on fixed mortgages and the 5 year Hybrid ARM rose slightly over the holiday week, but were still below the years highs set in the first half of 2010. For the year as a whole, 30 year fixed mortgage rates averaged just below 4.7 percent, which represented the lowest annual average since 1955 when secondary market yields on FHA mortgages were above 4.6 percent and the average price of a home was $22,000. Recent news on housing markets has been mixed. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index fell 0.99 percent in October, in line with other reports showing a softening in house prices since mid year. Home sales continue to recover in the months following the expiration of the Home buyer Tax Credit, however, with sales of new and existing homes up 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, in November
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